Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 0.015950 0.018062 0.020351 0.023018 0.026042 0.029363 0.033291
2025-08-10 0.012487 0.015362 0.018748 0.023032 0.028314 0.034622 0.042739
2025-08-17 0.010369 0.013499 0.017399 0.022621 0.029443 0.038070 0.049838
2025-08-24 0.009143 0.012468 0.016805 0.022890 0.031225 0.042275 0.058090
2025-08-31 0.008061 0.011440 0.016029 0.022729 0.032294 0.045502 0.065214
2025-09-07 0.007410 0.010900 0.015812 0.023250 0.034266 0.050051 0.074513
2025-09-14 0.006514 0.009898 0.014816 0.022510 0.034295 0.051754 0.079751
2025-09-21 0.005881 0.009207 0.014190 0.022224 0.034919 0.054318 0.086434
2025-09-28 0.005247 0.008446 0.013374 0.021547 0.034840 0.055751 0.091412
2025-10-05 0.005035 0.008325 0.013528 0.022396 0.037228 0.061215 0.103312
2025-10-12 0.004779 0.008103 0.013496 0.022924 0.039114 0.065998 0.114476
2025-10-19 0.004562 0.007923 0.013509 0.023517 0.041141 0.071154 0.126697
2025-10-26 0.004214 0.007496 0.013081 0.023333 0.041846 0.074169 0.135555
2025-11-02 0.003927 0.007149 0.012762 0.023314 0.042837 0.077771 0.145814
2025-11-09 0.003609 0.006718 0.012254 0.022899 0.043061 0.079990 0.153680
2025-11-16 0.003422 0.006510 0.012128 0.023171 0.044570 0.084669 0.166604
2025-11-23 0.003194 0.006201 0.011790 0.023008 0.045228 0.087787 0.176747
2025-11-30 0.003073 0.006090 0.011810 0.023535 0.047262 0.093701 0.192967
2025-12-07 0.002809 0.005674 0.011212 0.022786 0.046687 0.094429 0.198658
2025-12-14 0.002622 0.005396 0.010858 0.022497 0.047012 0.096967 0.208312
2025-12-21 0.002408 0.005046 0.010334 0.021811 0.046453 0.097638 0.214028
2025-12-28 0.002369 0.005055 0.010540 0.022671 0.049228 0.105481 0.236032
2026-01-04 0.002299 0.004993 0.010593 0.023205 0.051341 0.112081 0.255858